GUEST CONTRIBUTOR KATHLEEN WIRTH WEIGHS IN ON IDC'S PREDICTIONS FOR PRINT VOLUMES POST COVID-19 | AUGUST 11, 2020
Market-research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) recently published a forecast on worldwide page volumes. Print from office and home devices combined will decline sharply in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic changes where and how people work.
(Note that office and home devices include laser printers, MFPs, and single-function digital copiers with print-speed ranges of: color laser 1-69 ppm; monochrome laser 1-90 ppm, and also include home and office Inkjet printers and MFPs.)
The new research from IDC forecasts that total page volume will fall 13.7 percent in 2020. This is down from 3.2 trillion pages in 2019, to 2.8 trillion pages in 2020 (baseline scenario). IDC expects the market to bounce back slightly in the years ahead. However, page volumes are now forecast to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -4.8 percent over the 2019-2024 forecast period. This is notably lower than the 2015-2019 CAGR of -1.2 percent.
In the near term, IDC expects total page volumes to experience a sharp decline in every region this year due to the impact of COVID-19. The contraction will range from -7 to -17 percent. Forecasts say North America and Asia/Pacific (excluding China and Japan) will decline most dramatically. China is forecast to have the most conservative reduction in print volume.
lona Stankeova, senior research director of Imaging Devices & Document Solutions, IDC Europe, commented: “The dramatic and sudden transition to work from home in many of the world’s largest economies had a direct impact on office device print volumes. More than 6 million pages were printed every minute globally in 2019. This amount covers the area of 54 football pitches. COVID-19 is expected to remove print volume that would fill the area of 7 football fields every minute in 2020.”
COVID-19 is expected to remove print volume that would fill the area of 7 football fields every minute in 2020.”
- Imaging Devices & Document Solutions, IDC Europe
In addition to a baseline forecast, IDC provides forecasts based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. As for the optimistic scenario, the five-year CAGR for worldwide page volume will be -3.2 percent. But according to the pessimistic scenario, the worldwide page volume CAGR will be -6.6 percent.
“The decline of office print volume will have a big impact on total spending in the office print market. Hardcopy peripherals vendors will be required to make bold changes to their strategies based on future workstyles in the next normal following the pandemic,” said Eiji Ishida. Ishida serves as group manager of Imaging, Printing and Document Solutions, IDC Japan.
IDC’s Page Volume Program
IDC’s Page Volume Program quantifies worldwide page volumes and installed base units for home and office devices, and includes segmentation by product (laser/inkjet), product detail (color/mono) product category (multifunction peripheral (MFP), single-function printer, single-function digital copier (SF DC)), device format (A2/A3, A4), speed, supplies type (OEM/non-OEM).
The core program reports on seven geographic regions. It is further customizable with country and/or custom region definitions. Company and brand share details are available for an additional fee. The core program includes a supplemental Power Point presentation that annotates key trends and provides qualitative market insights to help accelerate customer use of the data set.
Written by Kathleen Wirth
Kathleen Wirth (Wirth Consulting) is an expert analyst in the printer, MFP, software, and solutions industry. Previously, prior to founding Wirth Consulting, Kathy was Senior Analyst at BERTL, Inc., Managing Editor at Industry Analysts, Inc., and Associate Editor at Buyers Laboratory, Inc.